Attractive Valuations A Big Pull Factor; Agrochem, Breweries & Mining Also Shine

DLF, Unitech and HDIL are the latest darlings of foreign funds expecting a quick buck, even as they slash holdings in companies such as Infosys Technologies and infrastructure builders due to concerns about order flows and high valuations, a study of latest filings shows.

The sudden fancy for real estate among those overseas funds were probably due to the surge in fund raisings by those debt-ridden companies in the recent bull run when most of them sold shares at less than a third of their peak 2007-08 valuations which overseas investors found attractive. “With interest rates expected to remain benign and stable, some dedicated funds might have bought on hopes of a significant upswing in high-beta sectors like realty,” said Tata Asset Management CEO Ved Prakash Chaturvedi. High beta stocks are those which rise or fall more than the benchmark indexes.

As of September 30, 2009, FIIs owned 25% of the aggregate equity capital of 36 realty companies, including industry leaders like DLF, Unitech, Indiabulls Real Estate and HDIL. That is higher than the previous year’s 9.6% and the year before’s 10.3%. Indian companies, including Unitech and DLF, have so far raised $12.3 billion through share sale this year and another $17.4 billion may be raised by fiscal year-end exploiting a record stock market rally which saw the benchmark indices more than double from their troughs earlier this year.

It was not just one sector that foreign funds who have invested $14.4 billion in the current calendar year so far have favored, but also raised stakes in sectors such as agrochemical, a key beneficiary in an agrarian economy like India, breweries which benefit from rising incomes in urban centres, and mining. Last year they pulled out $12 billion.

Overseas funds own 25.6%, 18.6% and 17.9%, respectively, in agrochemical, breweries and mining sectors. Companies such as United Phosphorus, United Spirits, Gujarat NRE Coke and Sesa Goa have large foreign holdings.

But the once that were favoured in the last bull rally — technology, capital goods, cement and retail — aren’t lucky this time. Combined FII holdings in all the listed IT companies fell to 12.1% as on September 30, 2009, compared to 15.6% as on September 30, 2008. Their exposure in capital good sector fell to 9.9% from 12.1% and to 15.1% from 18.5% in retail space. “FIIs have been underweight on IT companies due to outsourcing concerns,” said Centrum Broking MD Devesh Kumar. “Cement companies are adding new capacities and investors would wait for demand to pick up, which would also depend on the pace of infrastructure development in the country.”

International companies stung by the economic slowdown have been cutting their spend on technology which the Indian companies depend upon. SAP, Europe’s biggest business software producer, on Wednesday cut revenue forecast for the year as companies held on to purse strings.

Indian infrastructure companies are also showing delays in executing orders and their valuations at more than 25 times in some cases such as Larsen & Toubro seem to have run ahead of themselves.

Courtesy:- ET dt:- 29-10-2009